Political analyst Petros Qambukusa Magagula says the only pressure Beijing is likely to exert on Eswatini is to push the kingdom to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan, amid growing geopolitical tensions involving the two Asian rivals.
He said the pressure would be for Taiwan to remain with no African ally as the country is the sole diplomatic partner in the continent.
Magagula said while China had demonstrated its growing influence in Africa, there was no immediate reason for panic because the country had maintained relations with Taiwan for decades.
He noted that there was nothing amiss about the country maintaining relations with China because for decades, the kingdom had always interacted directly with Taiwan. He added that the kingdom should carefully analyse how it responds to any pressure from China.
His remarks come after recent international media reports that Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was forced to cancel a planned visit to the kingdom on April 21 after Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar reportedly revoked overflight permissions for his aircraft.
Taiwan accused China of using economic coercion to pressure the island nations into blocking the trip.
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According to Reuters, this was not the first time a Taiwanese president had been forced to suspend an overseas visit because of denied airspace access.
Last month’s development also triggered concern from the European Union, which reportedly stressed that overflight rights were a cornerstone of international civil aviation and neutrality in airspace management was important for diplomacy and commerce.
Despite the setback, Lai eventually made a surprise visit to Eswatini on Saturday, reaffirming Taiwan’s commitment to its only remaining African ally.
China, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory, has intensified efforts to isolate Taipei diplomatically.
Meanwhile, China recently announced that it had removed tariffs on imports from 53 African countries, excluding only Eswatini because of its ties with Taiwan.
The tariff-free arrangement reportedly came into effect on May 1 and covers some of Africa’s biggest economies, including South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Egypt.
Some analysts believe the country could respond by expanding trade relations with alternative partners instead of shifting its diplomatic position.
Magagula emphasised that the kingdom had always maintained relations with Taiwan and Beijing’s main objective would likely remain persuading Eswatini to abandon Taiwan in favour of the “One China” policy.
