GENEVA — US and Iranian officials are meeting in Geneva for a third round of indirect talks seen as crucial to averting conflict, with President Donald Trump threatening to strike Iran if a nuclear deal is not reached.
The discussions come amid the largest US military build-up in the Middle East since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, and with Iran vowing to respond to an attack with force.
The talks are again being mediated by Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr Albusaidi, who said negotiators had “demonstrated unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas and solutions”.
But the chances of an agreement remain unclear.
While Trump has said he prefers to solve the crisis through diplomacy, he has also indicated he is considering a limited strike on Iran to pressure its leaders to accept a deal.
The president has done little to explain what he is demanding in the negotiations and why there could be a need for military action now, eight months after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities during a war between Israel and Iran.
Iran has rejected the US demand to stop the enrichment of uranium in its territory, but there have been indications that it is prepared to offer some concessions regarding its nuclear programme.
DELEGATIONS AND MILITARY BUILD-UP
As in the previous two rounds of discussions earlier this month, the Iranian delegation is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while the US is represented by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
In recent weeks, the US has sent thousands of troops and what Trump has described as an “armada” to the region, including two aircraft carriers along with other warships, as well as fighter jets and refuelling aircraft.
Trump first threatened to bomb Iran last month as security forces brutally repressed anti-government protests. Since then, however, his focus has shifted to Iran’s nuclear programme, which has been at the centre of a long-running dispute with the West.
For decades, the US and Israel have accused Iran of trying to secretly develop a nuclear weapon. Iran insists its programme is only for peaceful purposes, though it remains the only non-nuclear-armed state to have enriched uranium to near weapons-grade level.
The indirect talks are taking place at the Omani ambassador’s residence in Geneva.
STATE OF THE UNION REMARKS
In his State of the Union speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump briefly addressed tensions with Iran without clearly laying out the case for potential strikes.
He said Iran was working to build missiles that would “soon” be capable of reaching the US, without providing details. He also accused the country of trying to restart its nuclear weapons programme following last year’s strikes and said he could not allow the “world’s number one sponsor of terror” to have a nuclear weapon.
The US struck three nuclear sites in Iran last June, joining Israel in its bombing campaign. At the time, Trump said the facilities had been “obliterated”.
Iran says its enrichment activity stopped after the attacks, although it has not allowed inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to access the damaged sites.
“They want to make a deal,” Trump said, “but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon’.”
Hours before the speech, however, Araghchi posted on social media that Iran would “under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon” and described an “historic opportunity” to reach an unprecedented agreement addressing mutual concerns.
POSSIBLE TERMS OF A DEAL
Iran’s proposals have not been made public, but discussions in Geneva could include the creation of a regional consortium for uranium enrichment and proposals on how to manage Iran’s estimated 400kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
In return, Iran expects the lifting of sanctions that have severely impacted its economy. Critics of the Iranian government argue that sanctions relief would strengthen the clerical leadership.
However, it remains unclear which conditions Trump would consider acceptable. Iran has already rejected discussions on limiting its ballistic missile programme or ending support for regional allies, an alliance it refers to as the “Axis of Resistance”.
This grouping includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.
RISKS OF ESCALATION
US media reports suggest Trump is considering potential strikes on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards or nuclear facilities if talks fail. Some reports indicate that a broader campaign targeting Iran’s leadership could also be contemplated.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Dan Caine, is reported to have warned that military action could risk drawing the US into a prolonged conflict. Trump, however, has insisted that such a conflict would be “easily won”.
Iran has threatened to retaliate by targeting US military assets in the Middle East and Israel.
Regional US allies have expressed concern that an attack could spark a wider conflict, warning that air power alone would not be sufficient to change Iran’s leadership.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cautioned against any deal that does not address Iran’s ballistic missiles and regional proxies, long describing Iran as a primary threat to Israel’s security.
Ahead of the State of the Union, Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a classified briefing to senior congressional leaders.
Following the session, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said: “This is serious, and the administration has to make its case to the American people.”
